Where it's at

This business is at the luxury end (to a certain extent), and as we are the biggest in our market by some size I would say we are a bellwether for the economy as a whole. As a shareholder I follow the stock market but I do not have the confience at the moment to invest further. Why not? Well the one thing an investor needs is confidence - even if the direction of the market is downwards. Then we can direct our funds in a particular direction and gain the desired return.Not all investors are looking to get rich quick and to this extent I look at the long-term trends as well as the short term rises and falls in the market of the past few weeks, which really tell me little of any interest.The Dow Jones and the FTSE map each other closely over the long term - that is the market trend. In fact the FTSE before the credit crunch rose higher but has since fallen faster than it's New York counterpart which indicates over-inflation in the UK stock market.My company's stock and that of our closest rival map each other almost exactly over the medium term - that is the industry trend.My industry has in fact shown a downturn since January 2007 - that predates the start of the downturn in the market trend which dates to mid-2007 (the onset of the credit crunch).The concern for me is that our industry does not yet show sign of development, of beating the overarching market conditions. With this in mind I think market diminution will continue until the second half of 2009 at least. That is the situation viewed from here conservatively, realistically I'm sorry to say I think it will roll on until well into 2010, probably 2011. That is when a recession (an expected contraction in the market equivalent to the "bust" of "boom and bust") becomes a depression - a sustained slump.What will be the effects of this, beyond the obvious economic hardship? Well Britain will see a reduced status on the international stage - the City was our big player and that has been humbled, as has our position on the coat-tails of the United States. Britain will become a bit-player, I would say like Austria - a diminished and peripheral nation. This will create its own social tensions. While I see a structural move to the left to counteract the liberal and permissive policies which precipitated this situation, there will become an obvious tension with those who cling to a desire to maintain the Great Britain that they have been used to. With this is in mind I can see a place, rightly or wrongly, for the Far Right as an increased voice of disenfranchised Britain.